Crossing Paths: U.S. Trade Insights
Crossing Paths is the Texas Center's recurring data journalism series on Port Laredo and U.S.–Mexico trade, published monthly in partnership with the Laredo Morning Times Business Journal. Each edition pairs original analysis — permits, crossings, trade value, and employment data pulled directly from the City of Laredo, U.S. DOT, and the Texas Workforce Commission — with a two-page infographic layout.
Laredo POE: Assessing the Nearshoring Warehouse Expansion
Between 2022 and 2025 Laredo permitted $1.73 billion of new warehouse and industrial construction, nearly three times the total of the previous seven years, during a period of strong nearshoring expectations. In 2025 alone the city authorized $731.5 million across 7.55 million square feet, roughly nine times the 2015–2021 average. Then permitting activity declined sharply in 2026. Through September 2026 permitting is down 87% vs all of 2025, with four months registering no industrial permits at all.
Download the full PDFAnalysis & Design: Daniel Covarrubias, Ph.D. · Heleodoro Lozano
What Got Built
Industrial & warehouse building permits, City of Laredo · 2015–2026
Permit valuation by year (millions USD, nominal)
City of Laredo Building Dept., permit type 320 (Industrial / Warehouse), excludes revoked, plan-check and to-be-issued permits. 2026 is a Jan–Sep partial-year stub.
Permitted floor area and average cost per sq ft
Labels above each bar show valuation per square foot
Floor area more than doubled from 2022 to 2025 (3.36M to 7.55M sq ft) while dollars tripled. Cost per sq ft rose by a third ($72.64 to $96.86), indicating that most of the growth came from more floor space rather than higher costs. The city did not record square footage before 2020.
2026 monthly permit valuation · Jan–Sep
Millions USD — four months registered zero industrial permits
Other permit categories totaled $53–60M in each of those four zero months. Single-family permits totaled $267M, Jan–Sep 2026. No warehouse permits were issued in those months.
The same pattern across the river · Nuevo Laredo industrial market
| Metric | 1H24 | 2H24 | 1H25 | 2H25 | 1H26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vacancy | 2.2% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 10.7% | 12.6% |
| Net absorption (sq ft) | +59,700 | −260,700 | −37,700 | −517,900 | −239,000 |
| Under construction (sq ft) | 500,000 | n/a | 299,900 | 182,900 | 182,900 |
Nuevo Laredo shows the same pattern. Vacancy rose from 2.2% to 12.6% between 1H24 and 1H26. Net absorption was negative for four consecutive half-years, a combined 1.06M sq ft of space vacated. Construction fell from 500,000 to 182,900 sq ft, and the 1H26 report identifies no new developments. Source: Newmark México, Nuevo Laredo Industrial Market reports.
What It Returned
Over 2015–2025, truck crossings through Port Laredo rose 47% and real trade value rose 36%. Through 2024, warehousing employment grew 32%, in line with trade value (+33%), while warehouse permitting grew several times faster. In 2025, the peak year for construction, truck crossings fell 3.1%, while real permit valuation rose 53%. Warehousing employment rose by 449 jobs in Q1 2025, coinciding with the new capacity, then fell 5.2% over the following four quarters.
Trade volume vs warehouse construction · indexed, 2015 = 100
Trade value and permit valuation deflated to 2025 dollars using BLS CPI-U
Over the decade trade grew; capacity grew far faster. Crossings rose 47% and real trade value 36%. Real warehouse permit valuation rose more than ninefold. From 2022 to 2025: crossings +6.0%, real trade value +13.3%, permitted floor area +125%. In 2025, crossings fell 3.1% — the first decline since 2020 — while real permit valuation rose 52.9%. Real trade value rose 2.4%: fewer trucks, higher value per truck.
Warehousing and truck transportation · quarterly average employment
Q4 2024 → Q1 2025 shaded — the quarter warehousing jumped and trucking fell
Warehousing employment ranged from 1,455 to 1,607 across 2023 and 2024. It rose by 449 in Q1 2025, following the 2024 permitting peak. Over the same quarter, truck transportation lost 695 jobs; total transportation and warehousing employment fell. Employment in warehousing has fallen 5.2% since Q1 2025.
Logistics employment by sector · annual average, Webb County
| NAICS | Sector | 2015 | 2021 | Peak | 2025 | vs Peak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4931 | Warehousing & storage | 1,189 | 1,418 | 2,015 (2025) | 2,015 | — |
| 484 | Truck transportation | 5,459 | 6,753 | 7,830 (2024) | 7,208 | −7.9% |
| 4885 | Freight transportation arrangement | 6,484 | 6,544 | 7,310 (2024) | 7,256 | −0.7% |
| 48-49 | Transportation & Warehousing | 14,120 | 16,028 | 18,154 (2024) | 17,852 | −1.7% |
QCEW, private ownership. Excludes self-employed owner-operator drivers, a meaningful share of Laredo drayage. Source: Texas Workforce Commission / BLS, QCEW, Webb County.
Laredo committed to warehouse capacity faster than trade grew to fill it.
Laredo permitted $1.73 billion of warehouse and industrial construction between 2022 and 2025, covering 21.7 million square feet. Warehousing employment is 69% above its 2015 level. Through 2024, warehousing employment generally tracked trade growth. The 2025 increase occurred largely in a single quarter; employment has eased 5.2% since but remains above 2024 levels. Trucking employment is down 622 from its 2024 peak. Permitting through September 2026 is 87% below the 2025 total, with four months at zero. In Nuevo Laredo, vacancy rose from 2.2% to 12.6% in two years, and no new developments are identified.
Sources: City of Laredo Building Department permit records (type 320, Industrial / Warehouse) · Newmark México, Nuevo Laredo Industrial Market 1H24–1H26 · City of Laredo Bridge System · U.S. DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Texas Workforce Commission / BLS, QCEW, Webb County · BLS CPI-U.
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